Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
