A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus United.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
